Gower Street Analytics has revised its 2024 Global box office projection to $32.3 billion. The announcement comes as the global exhibition industry gathers in Las Vegas for CinemaCon, the official convention of The National Association of Theatre Owners, which runs April 8-11. The revision is a marginal increase on the Gower Street’s original projection of $31.5 billion published in December 2023.
It is notable, however, that the increase would have been greater were it not for exchange rate changes between December and now essentially wiping out over a third of the gains seen collectively across international markets.
A $32.3 billion Global box office in 2024 would represent an approximate five percent decrease year-on-year (a three percent decrease at current exchange rates) from 2023. The 2024 revised estimate is 18 percent behind an average of the last three pre-pandemic years (2017-2019).
Actuals for Q1 were one percent ahead of Gower Street’s projections in the domestic market and in China. For the international market (excluding China) they were 11 percent ahead of estimates. There have also been several changes to the 2024 release calendar since their first projection was announced in December and overall gains in their estimate can primarily be attributed to titles that have been added to the release calendar.
Overall, their projection has seen only modest gains of approximately $200 million in the Domestic market, $550 million (in US dollars) in the international market (excluding China) and remained relatively static for China. China is the only one of the three key markets projected to see a year-on-year improvement.
This projection, calculated utilizing data from Gower Street's flagship Forecast service and analyst assessment, is based on the current release calendar.