By Michael Karagosian Is 3D here to stay? By now that should be a dated question. There are a lot of reasons why 3D has gained momentum in cinema and not all of them have to do with motion pictures. Stereoscopic viewing dates back nearly 200 years and has a history with film nearly as old as the motion picture itself. Plenty has been written about the several fashionable periods for 3D movies. And plenty more has been said that either elevates the technology as new art for story-telling or simply rules it out as nothing more than fuel for fads. In fact modern 3D technology has been slowly creeping in the back door planting itself in industries other than motion pictures. Without any acknowledgement to its roots in entertainment the cheap computational power in desktop computers allowed stereoscopic technology to advance in a much broader fashion than at any other time in history. 3D stereoscopic visualization is now applied in computer simulations for medicine architecture and industrial modeling. And then out of nowhere we were handed stereoscopic glasses so we could watch movies in digital 3D. At least that’s how it appeared to me. I wasn’t exactly a 3D fan having never seen a stereoscopic image I liked. In-Three at the time was just starting up and my friends there will attest to my attitude. Around 2003 they were pulling my arm to see the unique 3D power tucked away in digital projectors. I eventually broke and paid a visit and instantly was transformed. Not only did stereoscopic digital projection truly work in a manner far better than with 35mm film it was a true value-add for digital projection. But cinema is not about technology. It’s about storytelling on big screens. For digital 3D to really penetrate the market it would need support from filmmakers. In late 2004 director Peter Jackson began to push In-Three to stage a public demonstration at ShoWest 2005. Here was the headline: “Oscar-winning director supports 3D.” And Peter was certainly not alone. By the time the actual demonstration took place at ShoWest James Cameron George Lucas Robert Zemeckis Robert Rodriguez and Randal Kleiser put their clips and their names out front. I tell this story because it underscores the staying power of 3D today. Stereoscopic technology may have its roots in film but today it flourishes in industries well outside of entertainment. This gives the technology a strength it has not had before and further encourages the creative community to use it. With the support of major movie directors 3D projection has entered the mainstream. (Photo: Boyd MacNaughton) This is evident in the legendary number of 3D productions now in progress with enough of a pipeline to keep 3D screens continuously lit for a few years. Behind the scenes the investment in core production technology is also impressive from stereoscopic production consoles to camera rigs. This phenomenon is not limited to the US. As I write this the 3DX Film and Entertainment Festival is in progress in Singapore a testimony to the worldwide recognition that this medium now enjoys. 3D investment reaches out to the theatre as well. 3D exhibition not only requires digital projection which itself is a substantial and recurring investment it requires the additional purchase of 3D add-on equipment. The primary factor that will determine if 3D really sticks this time around is economics. Is there an ROI with 3D? Given the scale of production witnessed production and post-production companies have an opportunity to recoup their investment in new 3D cameras consoles and conversion technologies. Less obvious is whether exhibitors will recoup their investment in digital projectors and 3D add-on gear. And core to the ROI issue of course is whether studios will recoup their investment in 3D movies. This last point is what is driving the “3D-to-the-home” market. There’s lots of buzz about 3D entertainment systems entering the home market. Market studies are taking place to gauge whether consumers will wear glasses in the home. Standards committees have formed to study the technical issues associated with bringing 3D capability into the living room. High-quality 3D requires bandwidth which in turn impacts distribution formats and even the cable between players and monitors. Researchers have finally found a potential high-scale market for auto-stereoscopic monitors. (Auto-stereoscopic means “no glasses.”) You will hear of auto-stereoscopic display technologies that provide many angles of view to a living room audience without glasses. Technologies such as volumetric projection and computer-generated holography are receiving much interest. Fortunately for the cinema market the barriers to 3D-in-the-home are high. There is no agreement on the target display technology for the home. And generating high-visual-quality content for auto-stereoscopic displays is not a simple matter. Even Jeffrey Katzenberg commented on the long horizon needed for consumer 3D to take root at this week’s 3DX Film and Entertainment Festival. The 3D topic is very much alive today and the investment level in 3D is strong. Is 3D here to stay? Given that our world is 3D the question might be better framed as how long will 2D be around? Michael Karagosian is founder and president of MKPE Consulting LLC a Los Angeles-based consultancy in the entertainment industry.
