I missed this year’s ShowEast. I tore ligaments in my left foot in a volleyball game a few nights before the show began and was in no shape to navigate airports and trade show floors. However after going through a raft of press releases and talking to many people who were there I think it’s fair to say that I was not the only one who was feeling a measure of pain that week. There were several product introductions particularly in 3D but there was also anxiety about developments with both the Digital Cinema Initiative and Digital Cinema Implementation Partners and of course with the overall state of the economy. All of which leads to the simple question: What happens now? The short answer to that is that no one seems to know with any degree of certainty. The best answer for now seems to be what AccessIT chairman Bud Mayo predicts which is that the demand for 3D movies will be too strong to stall a digital cinema transition completely but even that demand won’t be enough to fuel widespread growth. In a panel discussion at the show he used the financial description traunches to explain how the money will be parsed out. Traunches is a blunt word that basically means chunks of cash distributed over a longer period of time. His assessment was based on the two good-news-bad-news announcements that were timed to coincide with ShowEast. The first announcement was the long-awaited news that the Digital Cinema Implementation Partners had at last reached a Virtual Print Fee agreement with five major movie studios and would be funded to the tune of some one billion dollars by the combined forces of JP Morgan Chase and the Blackstone Group. But that good news was later clarified and in fact the one billion dollars is actually a goal and JP Morgan Chase and the Blackstone Group are just now starting to raise the funds. Then came word that the Digital Cinema Initiatives had settled on international testing sites and the rational and independent certification of digital cinema technology can begin in earnest. The fine print of that announcement however is that the testing process is time-consuming and expensive and more troubling than that many DCI engineers suggest that much if not all of the technology already installed may not in fact fully meet their specifications. The issue there is this: what happens with the 7 000 or so digital cinema projectors installed around the world. Do they actually meet the standards? Do they have to be tested? If they don’t pass the test do they have to be replaced? For his part Bud Mayo looks at the developments and the overall state of the economy and remains upbeat that the digital transition can proceed although perhaps more slowly than hoped for and expected. “I think we can [move forward] ” he says. “We are optimistic about being able to do what we can do despite [recent developments]. Options continue to be negotiated.” Those who share Mayo’s optimism do so for a lot of reasons. Exhibitors with no exceptions that I’m aware of are very happy with their existing digital cinema systems. This is basically true regardless of which manufacturer’s technology they are using. No one wants to take the huge step back that replacing – or even retesting existing systems – would represent. And everyone agrees that 3D remains a powerful driver of digital cinema and exhibitors recognize that. Jim Farney Dolby’s director marketing-motion picture says “We got really excellent response from everybody” for its 3D demonstrations.” Although he kept that positive attitude throughout our converstion when asked what exactly happens now he replies “I don’t think any of us know for sure.” Sony also had some 3D-related announcements and citing similar reasons as Farney Andrew Stucker Sony’s general manager business development Content Creation Group is confident that the roll out will proceed in an orderly fashion. “This will happen ” he says. Although her company made most of the 7 000 projectors in question no one seems more upbeat about the current state of things than TI’s Nancy Fares manager DLP Cinema DLP products. Fares says that although that the DCI testing issue remains unresolved and DCIP does not have its financing in hand the underlying news of the show was very positive. She notes that DCIP has reached an agreement with five of the major Hollywood studios and the remaining two – Sony and Warner Bros. – seem close to signing on as well. The money is there in principle and at the worst the roll out will happen more slowly than anybody wanted or expected but it will happen. She concedes that the DCI compliance issue is serious and has nothing but praise for the work that DCI has done but here too she is optimistic about finding a solution to the matter that satisfies everyone. “Some of the testing is not final yet ” she says suggesting that behind-the-scenes compromises are a possibility. She describes the overall mood in her company as “a high level of confidence” that things can proceed smoothly from here. There will be intense pressure from studios and exhibitors to find a way to view the existing technology in the market as a grandfathered Phase One and move on with the new testing requirements adhered to from this point. Theft of content is quite correctly the industry’s greatest concern and to my knowledge – and to the knowledge of every person I’ve spoken to – there has not been a single instance of movie theft that can be attributed to digital cinema technology. I personally know of only one serious breakdown of the technology and that was the server. That problem was corrected in a matter of a few hours and that exhibitor remains completely satisfied with both the technology and the companies that provided it. I come from the Midwest and they have a saying out there: If it isn’t broken don’t fix it. We have plenty of serious challenges to deal with to get digital cinema established around the world. The existing technology that is currently working beautifully at a theatre near you if you’re one of the lucky ones is the solution not the problem. Let’s move forward.
